South Africa’s security and influence hinge on a capable National Defense Force.
South Africa’s security and influence hinge on a capable National Defense Force, yet the SANDF’s collapse, as detailed in Part 1, leaves the nation vulnerable. A robust defense force is essential to protect sovereignty, secure 80% of trade through maritime routes, support domestic stability, lead African peacekeeping, and counter emerging threats like cyberattacks.
This article explores why South Africa needs a strong SANDF, the financial barriers to reform, and a practical plan to restore its capabilities. Drawing on open-source intelligence, it outlines urgent steps to rebuild a defense force that safeguards South Africa’s future, ensuring it can meet both current and evolving challenges.
Why South Africa Needs a Strong SANDF
South Africa’s strategic position demands a functional defense force. Its 2,798 km coastline and 1.5 million km² exclusive economic zone are vital for trade, contributing to a $405 billion GDP. Without naval or air capabilities, these assets risk piracy, illegal fishing, and trafficking, threatening economic stability. For instance, a single piracy incident could disrupt shipping, costing industries millions and deterring investors. Sovereignty also requires secure borders and airspace, currently exposed with no radar or jets, leaving South Africa vulnerable to smuggling or unauthorized incursions.
As a leader in the African Union and Southern African Development Community, South Africa must support regional stability, particularly in conflict zones like the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). A weakened SANDF undermines this role, reducing influence compared to powers like Nigeria or Ethiopia while leaving it vulnerable to destructive regional forces. Domestically, the SANDF supports police during crises, such as the 2021 riots, and aids disaster response, like flood relief. Emerging threats, including cyberattacks that could target critical infrastructure or climate-driven conflicts over resources like water, demand modern capabilities.
Without a strong SANDF, South Africa cannot deter threats, protect trade, or maintain its global standing in a multipolar world.
Financial Barriers to Reform
The SANDF’s 2025/26 budget of R55.94 billion, up R400 million, provides a mere 0.21% real-term increase, insufficient to address its crisis or fund reforms. With 68% (R38billion) allocated to salaries, only R17.94 billion remains for equipment, maintenance, and operations, far short of needs for aircraft repairs, radar restoration, or naval modernization. DRC deployments, costing R5 billion over three years (R1.8 billion in 2025/26), further strain resources. Doubling the budget to R100-110 billion, as some suggest, is unlikely with South Africa’s 1-2% GDP growth and competing priorities like health and education.
Reforms, estimated at R10-15 billion over five years for repairs and drones, exceed current discretionary funds. Without a VAT increase for 2025/26, alternative strategies are critical to bridge the gap:
Financial Accountability: Transparent budgeting with public audits, overseen by a parliamentary committee, can curb salary bloat and prioritize maritime security.
Merit-Based Appointments: Select leaders with military expertise, like the UK’s recruitment model, to improve asset prioritization decisions.
Oversight: A defense oversight board, modelled on police accountability reforms, with civilian and military experts, can prevent mismanagement.
Minister with Military Knowledge: Appoint a minister with defense experience, as seen with cybersecurity-focused leaders, to align policies with operational needs.
Interdepartmental Cooperation: Share resources with Home Affairs (R13.9 billion budget) and Police (R120.8 billion) for border security and domestic stability.
Non-Aligned Partnerships: Collaborate with SADC for training and cost-sharing, as discussed with the DRC. Engage non-aligned nations like India for affordable technology, preserving neutrality.
Streamlining personnel and leveraging partnerships can fund reforms within the R55.94 billion budget, ensuring the SANDF meets its strategic roles.
Corrective Action Plan
To restore the SANDF’s ability to protect sovereignty, secure economic interests, support domestic stability, lead regionally, and counter future threats, a five-point plan is proposed:
1. Budget Reallocation
Shift 20-30% of the budget to equipment and maintenance within five years through voluntary retirements and hiring freezes, as R17.94billion non-salary funds are inadequate. Public-private partnerships, like those discussed at the 2025 Defence Conference, can fund radar and naval repairs, securing 80% of South Africa’s trade. These steps ensure economic stability and sovereignty.
2. Asset Modernization
Repair aircraft and ships, targeting 50% operational capacity in three years to protect borders. Invest in cost-effective drones and modular radar for affordability. Phase out obsolete equipment for versatile platforms, safeguarding trade routes and airspace critical for economic security.
3. Deployment Reform
Prioritize high-impact DRC missions to restore regional leadership. Partner with SADC to share costs, reducing strain, as discussed with the DRC. Enhance training to improve pre-determined and measurable outcomes, aligning with South Africa’s AU role and strengthening diplomatic influence and regional security.
4. Governance and Accountability
Form an independent oversight committee to align spending with goals like economic security. Publish annual readiness reports to build public trust. Hold leaders accountable for mismanagement, addressing demands for reform.
5. Long-Term Strategy
Develop a 10-year plan for cyber capabilities to counter emerging threats and climate-resilient systems for future conflicts. Launch a youth reserve program to ensure sustainability for domestic and regional roles, preparing for evolving challenges.
These reforms, supported by accountability and partnerships, will rebuild a SANDF capable of securing South Africa and leading in Africa.
Call to Action
The SANDF’s collapse threatens South Africa’s sovereignty, economy, and influence. Reforms, backed by accountability, merit-based leadership, and strategic partnerships, can restore a defense force to secure trade, support stability, and counter threats like cyberattacks. Policymakers, citizens, and the defense community must act urgently to rebuild a resilient SANDF for South Africa’s future.
Read Part 1: SANDF in crisis – A defence force on its knees
