Letter to supporters of the Cape Independence Advocacy Group (CIAG) - 4 June 2024

LETTER: CIAG discusses the post election environment and the implications for Cape Independence

Letter to supporters of the Cape Independence Advocacy Group (CIAG)

The 2024 elections are now behind us and we must adjust to a new set of political realities.

Provincially, very little has changed. The DA have retained an outright majority in the province and will continue to pursue the devolution of powers, but not Cape Independence.

Nationally, a lot has changed. As expected, the ANC have fallen below 50% for the first time since 1994 and South Africa will now enter the era of coalition politics. 

The Multi-Party Charter (MPC) has failed to achieve anything close to a majority and cannot form a government. Despite the political propaganda, this was always inevitable. 

Although weakened, the ANC remains the dominant force in South African politics, and now has its choice of political partners. In the next few days, they will choose between the DA or Radical Economic Transformation (RET) parties (MK, EFF) and the immediate direction of South Africa will then become apparent.

Should the ANC choose the DA (the option which the CIAG expects the ANC to take) then we can expect a rerun of the ‘Ramaphoria’ phenomenon where positive sentiment rapidly returns to the country. The first occasion proved to be a false dawn. The euphoria quickly faded, giving way to despair as South Africa continued its descent towards failed statehood.

At the CIAG, we are fighting to create a safe and prosperous long-term future for the Western Cape people. We hope this time it will be different, although our expectations are that it will not. 

As an organisation we will continue to lobby for independence, which we believe is by far the best, and perhaps the only viable long-term future. But we will also press the national and provincial governments to take concrete steps to transfer power away from Pretoria and to the Western Cape. If and when the wheels come off an ANC/DA national government, it is critical that the Western Cape has already achieved significant provincial autonomy. This will not only isolate the people of the Western Cape from whatever comes next, but it will also make the ultimate process of gaining our independence much easier.

Should the ANC choose either MK, the EFF, or both as their partners in government, then Cape Independence will become essential to even our short-term wellbeing. The CIAG will then use every tool at our disposal to force the DA-led Western Cape Government to call a referendum on Cape Independence. Should it refuse to do so, then we will almost certainly organise a private referendum which will allow the Western Cape people to be heard on this issue.

Once the political circumstances have been finalised, we will lay out our plans going forward more clearly.

In the meantime, thank you for your support.

Kind Regards

Phil, Rineé, and the CIAG team.

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